Polling and Analysis (With pictures!)
Although I've been here for a few years now, this is my first diary.I've noticed that its became a recent trend to single out specific poll results and not look at the whole picture. For example, when...
View ArticleTurnout analysis (with graphs)
Yesterday, I wrote a diary examining how accurately polls predicted turnout. In many states such as Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, pre-election polling severely underestimated African-American...
View ArticleReflections on Silence
(Cross-posted at MyDD)I participated in the Day of Silence today at school, and wrote the following statement to explain my participation to others:As you may know, today, April 25 2008, is the Day of...
View Article5 should be the actual number deducted from Clinton's NC/IN margins (Corrected)
According to a diary on the top of the Rec list right now, you should deduct 15% from Clinton's vote in IN because it is from Republicans who would not vote for her in the GE. However, the diary...
View ArticleExit polls predict Obama with 64% in Lake County. UPDATE: Clinton leaving the...
It currently appears that Lake County could possibly swing Indiana over to Obama. Many people here have suspected fraud, and I unfortunately was one of them (for 10-20 minutes only!) But I've done some...
View ArticleThe video that will win us this election (Updated)
Credit for this goes completely to Pat Flatley of MyDD. He doesn't have an account here, and said that he would love for anyone to cross-post it on his behalf.As we all know, McCain's electoral...
View ArticleWar between Russia and Georgia
(I am aware that Setrak has already written a diary on this, but I've decided to try and flesh it out, since most people don't seem to understand the situation. My information comes mostly from...
View ArticleHas Russia really invaded Georgia proper?
In my previous diary on this topic, I examined the background to the South Ossetian war. Today, I try to examine the current situation in the war.Yesterday, most of us probably heard the news that...
View ArticleThe mistake named Sarah Palin: A compilation
This diary aims to sum up everything we've learned about Sarah Palin, presumptive Republican VP candidate, just within the first 24 hours of her announcement.Who is Sarah Palin?If there's anyone in...
View ArticleWV-02: Capito actually tied, Obama leads by single digits
This diary was first posted as a series of comments, but I decided to expand them and write a diary so that people could actually see it.As you probably know by now, brownsox has posted the latest...
View ArticleCao wins, within 1000 votes of the margin I predicted (Edited title)
(From comments crossposted at Swing State Project)I decided to analyze the individual precincts, and compare their performance to that against the Jefferson-Carter race in 2006 (Jefferson won that by...
View ArticleIsrael vows to use "more force" next time?
Unfortunately, this diary isn't snark, no matter how much the title may read like it comes out of the Onion.The title quote comes from a Jerusalem Post article that seems to have been mostly...
View ArticleGround report in Ann Arbor (bad news. Sorry.)
I'm just taking a break now from flyering and handing out literature all over campus at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Unfortunately, there's quite little excitement in the crowd; turnout all...
View ArticleStatistical analysis of Rasmussen's accuracy
I'm writing this diary mainly since I've spent a while arguing with Rasmussen's partisan defenders, and intend to have solid numbers ready for my own reference in case of future disputes. I haven't...
View ArticleDid Wisconsin GOP Supreme Court Justice Prosser allow sexual abuse of children?
This (relatively old) fact does not seem to have been widely reported, other than an article in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel three years ago, but I thought that it would be interesting and important...
View ArticleMultivariate analysis of Wisconsin recalls
(Cross-posted at SSP)A couple weeks ago, Kos/PPP polled all the Wisconsin Republicans up for recall and found some very interesting results. However, he did not poll the Dem races up for recall, as...
View ArticleAnalysis of the newly added Waukesha ballots
(Cross-posted at SSP)(Note: To counteract widespread speculation, we should remember that the Brookfield totals are not in dispute without a widespread conspiracy. The result of +7500 Prosser was...
View ArticleQuestions regarding claimed death of Saif al-Arab Gaddafi
I'm writing this diary mainly as a response to the comments of the rec list one also on this topic. In my opinion, people are jumping to conclusions too quickly and accepting Gaddafi's comments at face...
View ArticleStatistical analysis: 2/3 of the Republican WI recalls likely invalid
There have been 9 recall petitions in Wisconsin filed this year - 6 Republicans (Dan Kapanke, Randy Hopper, Luther Olsen, Sheila Harsford, Robert Cowles, Alberta Darling) and 3 Democrats (Jim Holperin,...
View ArticleGun rights - a regressive social policy?
A constant refrain among many proponents of gun rights is that firearms are necessary for self-defense. "An armed society is a polite society", we are often told. Moreover, we are constantly told that...
View ArticleIran: Republicans tried to stall prisoner exchange until after 2016 election
According to a report in an Iranian news agency, a top Iranian official stated that Republicans attempted to stall last month’s prisoner exchange until after the 2016 election, in a move resemblant of...
View ArticleThe way forward: Never give up
Maybe it’s premature for me to write this. Hillary could still pull out a miracle. But at the moment, it appears that Trump will almost assuredly win the election. And he will have a Republican House...
View ArticleGOP internal: James Thompson (KS-04) down 1% in election tomorrow
Now we know why Republicans are suddenly throwing everything and the kitchen sink into Kansas. Especially the poor guy that had to talk Trump into staying on message enough to record a robocall.An...
View ArticleAlabama poll: Doug Jones (D) within 3-4% in Senate race
A new poll from Emerson University finds that the Democratic nominee, Doug Jones, is in a statistical tie with either potential Republican opponent.The poll sampled 416 likely voters in the Republican...
View ArticleTired of GOP dirty tricks in Georgia? Fight for SoS runoff!
Secretaries of State have vast amounts of power to govern elections. In 2000, Kathleen Harris was instrumental in halting the Florida recount, certifying Bush as the winner of the election. In 2004,...
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